中国互联网越来越趋向于寡头与寡头之间的竞争，自门户时代开始，到后来的游戏领域，搜索领域，电子商务领域以及Web2.0领域都由巨头把手，这一情形和美国大相径庭，美国不仅有诸如Google16.5亿美金巨资收购的Yotube，更有被誉为可能挑战Google的后起之秀Facebook，这些后起之秀继承了雅虎和Google之后创造了一个又一个奇迹，对此，中国的互联网公司似乎只有望洋兴叹。
我们甚至想过在巨人，金山，阿里巴巴上市热之后，下一个上市热会出现在哪里？投资者的冷漠，创业者的艰辛昭示着中国的互联网似乎进入了又一个冬天。而之所以造成这种情况，我认为有以下几个原因。
一，网民增速不及网络增速
2007年1月的互联网分析报告显示，中国网民从去年同期的11100万增长到现在的13700万，增长势头十分强劲，但似乎互联网的增速更为迅猛，就拿Web2.0中的视频来说，自Youtube被收购以来一时间中国诞生了几百家视频网站，这种增速大大超出了视频用户的增长，于是僵不应求，市场呈现出相对饱和的态势。
二，网络应用的市场开拓很难
另一方面是网络应用的覆盖率较低，Web2.0中有很多互联网应用，但广大网民能耳熟能详的也不过就博客，视频，其他很多应用都奄奄一息。因为大部分网民都只是满足于现有的互联网应用，很少去捕捉最前沿的互联网应用。这些互联网应用是否有清晰的盈利模式先不说，单在市场开拓方面就阻力重重，这让很多新的商业模式短时间难以形成规模，而发展情景更扑朔迷离。
三，二八理论的体现，细分的困难
当前的互联网发展了20%却已经能满足80%的需求，门户，邮箱，IM这些只是互联网应用的冰山一角，但却已经能满足广大网民的需求，于是要挖掘剩余20%的需求则需要花剩余80%的功夫，显然是事半功倍。虽然我们说互联网的应用正在进入一个细分化的发展时期，伴随这个细分会出现很多哦新兴应用。但这个细分难度有多大呢？市场有多大呢？
四， 网民消费能力有待提高，消费模式有待改善
网民的消费能力是一个关键因素，针对的用户群层次不同，其盈利能力就大有差异。现在看来，能直接从网民身上赚钱并形成规模盈利的似乎只有网络游戏。网络广告，搜索引擎，电子商务都是变相的在赚网民的钱。但都和网民的消费能力和消费模式有关，似乎直接问网民要钱比登天还难，这倒让我想到了威客，威客难道不是直接赚网民的钱么？只不过规模还有待进一步扩大。
Why does the internet enter the winter
The competition is more and more likely to happen between oligarch and oligarch. From the times of Portals to Online games, Search engine, E-business and Web2.0, the masters are magnets。There is so large gap between America and China. As we know, Youtube, which is purchased by Google at the price of 1.65 billion dollars and Facebook , which is supposed to challenge Google, they create one and another legends.
We can’t image that after Giant, Kingsoft and Alibaba, which have gone public, when the tide of going public will rise? The apathy of VC, the hardships of entrepreneur declared that the internet has entered another winter。I think that there will be such reasons to lead this.
The growth of net citizen is less than internet
The Internet Analyze Report which is published in January 2007 illustrated that the net citizen has grown to 13700 from 11100 at a large scale. But the Internet is growing more quickly. For example the Video Websites, hundreds have been born at the same time. The speed was greatly beyond the capacity of market. It reached a status of relative saturation.
The coverage rate is relative low
The second aspect is that the coverage rate of Internet application is relative low. There have been so many applications in Web2.0. But just few of them can be taken use of. At first we needn’t pay any attention to the “Profit pattern ” of them, but just the market expansion is so tough to resolve. So many latest internet application can’t form one enormous market scale. And the future is more complicated and confusing.
The representation of “Two-Eight Theory” and the difficulty of fractionize
The present 20% development can satisfy the 80% requirement. Portals, Email and IM, which are just a few parts of internet application, but it can satisfy most requirement of net citizen. So it demand the rest 80% energy, which means getting half the result with twice the effort. And although we declared that the application is being one period of “fractionized development” and there will be more and more new applications will be produced. But how about the difficulty and the market?
The ability and mode of consumption should be improved
The ability of consumers is another key factor. The room of profit can be very different according to different consumers. Now On-line Game is almost the only direct mode witch can earn money from the net citizen at a relative scale. The Advertisement, Search Engine, E-business are indirect ways . Both of the ways are related to the ability and mode of consumption. It is apparently so difficult to obtain money from net citizen. But this leads my mind to witkey. However, the scale of witkey needs to be enlarged.